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Professional multi-model meteogram

10-day forecast comparing three reference numerical models — ECMWF IFS, GFS (NOAA) and ICON (DWD) — with a model-agreement band, precipitation, wind and gusts, cloud cover by layer, pressure, humidity and freezing level. Data from Open-Meteo.

Prefer a simple table with the values of each model? Try the Model comparator.

Frequently asked questions

What is a meteogram?

A meteogram is the graphical representation of how several weather variables (temperature, precipitation, wind, cloud cover, pressure…) evolve over time at a specific point. It is the format used by professional services such as meteoblue or national forecasting centres to condense the full 10-day forecast into a single view.

Why do ECMWF, GFS and ICON give different results?

Each numerical model uses different physics, resolution and data assimilation. ECMWF IFS (European) usually leads medium-range verification scores; GFS (NOAA, USA) updates every 6 hours; ICON (DWD, Germany) excels in central Europe. When all three agree, the forecast is robust; when they diverge, there is real uncertainty in the atmosphere.

How is the forecast reliability calculated?

We measure the spread between models: the mean standard deviation of hourly temperature and the disagreement in the occurrence and amount of precipitation over the 10 days. Low spread → High label; large spread → Low label. It is an honest indicator of consensus, not a guarantee: even with full agreement the models can all be wrong at the same time.

What is the freezing level?

It is the altitude at which the free-air temperature crosses 0 °C (zero isotherm). Below that level precipitation normally falls as rain; the snow line usually sits 200–400 m below the freezing level. It is a key figure for mountains, mountain-pass roads and ski resorts.

How to read a multi-model meteogram

The temperature panel draws one line per model plus a grey band between the minimum and maximum of the three: the narrower the band, the stronger the consensus. From day 5–6 onwards it is normal for the band to widen; the atmosphere is a chaotic system and predictability decays with lead time.

Precipitation is shown with semi-transparent bars per model. If one model paints rain and the others do not, treat it as a possible scenario, not a firm forecast. The accumulated 10-day total per model, below the chart, quickly summarises each model's wet or dry bias.

The wind panel combines the mean speed at 10 m with the gusts (dashed line), the relevant variable for warnings and outdoor activities. Cloud cover by layer distinguishes low clouds (fog, stratus), mid-level and high clouds (cirrus), and pressure together with relative humidity helps anticipate the passage of fronts: sustained pressure drops with rising humidity usually precede precipitation.

About the models

ECMWF IFS (European Centre, Reading) is the world reference in the medium range; the open 0.25° output is used here. GFS (NOAA) is the American global model, with cycles every 6 hours. ICON (Deutscher Wetterdienst) combines its global mesh with high-resolution European nests. The data is served through the open Open-Meteo API and is refreshed with every model cycle.